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 887 
 WTNT42 KNHC 131453
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010
 
 METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY AND A 0938 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
 MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
 PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS THE MOST
 IMPRESSIVE.  DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
 AND SAB ARE T2.5...35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE
 UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...JULIA COULD BE
 IMPACTED BY A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN
 AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
 ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO BY MAINTAINING JULIA AS A
 LOW-END HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE SHIPS...
 LGEM...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IGOR WILL CREATE MODERATE TO
 STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR
 AROUND DAY 5 IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS
 JULIA WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. 
 
 BASED ON A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/12...A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 THROUGH DAY 5 WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
 A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
 JULIA. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE CUT-OFF LOW
 WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO MAINTAIN A
 GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FAVORS THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
 ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.9N  26.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N  27.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N  29.6W    55 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N  31.4W    60 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.6N  33.2W    65 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.8N  37.7W    65 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N  43.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 28.5N  47.5W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
  
 
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