633 
 WTNT45 KNHC 171435
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  20
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018
 
 Joyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining
 into the circulation.  Visible satellite imagery this morning
 shows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with
 only a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles
 northeast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate
 that winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the
 cyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical
 depression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear
 are expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and
 the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24
 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
 advisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable
 change is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a
 little faster than the previous advisory.
 
 The initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this
 morning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern
 periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of
 days, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and
 then southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The
 lastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track
 forecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to
 the previous official forecast track.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/1500Z 34.0N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 33.5N  27.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 32.3N  26.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/0000Z 31.2N  27.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z 30.3N  28.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto