344 
 WTNT45 KNHC 162033
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018
 
 Joyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression.  The cloud
 pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches
 of deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast
 quadrant.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement
 with an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds
 in the 25-30 kt range.  Even though Joyce is over relatively warm
 water, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of
 west-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to
 gradually weaken during the next few days.  Although remnant low
 status is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible
 that Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well
 before then.
 
 The depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial
 motion estimate being 090/15.  The weak and shallow system is
 expected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few
 days.  This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn
 southeastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then
 southwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves
 around a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic.  The track
 models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were
 made to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 34.4N  32.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 34.2N  30.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 33.6N  28.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 32.4N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 31.2N  27.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  30.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi