947 
 WTNT45 KNHC 161441
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018
 
 Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment.  The cloud
 pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep
 convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another
 patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the
 northeast quadrant.  Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT
 pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become
 increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest.  Based on the
 system's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the
 initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical
 depression.
 
 The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the
 mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through
 tonight.  After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow
 down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves
 in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge.
 The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall
 change was made to the previous NHC forecast.
 
 Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of
 west-southwesterly shear.  Even though SSTs are relatively warm,
 the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause
 the cyclone to gradually weaken.  Although the NHC forecast shows
 Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days,
 it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough
 or a remnant low at any time during that period.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 34.7N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 34.9N  31.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 34.5N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 33.6N  27.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 32.6N  26.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 30.4N  29.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi