971 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 102052
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA
 FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
 QUADRANT AND A BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 109 KT IN THE
 SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LAST DROPSONDE REPORT IN THE EYE INDICATED A
 SURFACE PRESSURE OF 956 MB...BUT WITH A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 15
 KT. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 955 MB.
 BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
 AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO CHANGES HAD TO MADE TO THE VARIOUS
 WIND RADII BASED ON THE RECON WIND DATA.
  
 THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/04 KT. JOVA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG
 ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
 SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD TURN
 THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND TOWARD
 THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF FORECAST TRACK HAS
 SHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
 TRACK. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
 THE NHC HFIP TV15 AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 JOVA HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C...
 ESPECIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A
 RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND JOVA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4
 HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT
 INDICATE JOVA REMAINS A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE
 CYCLONE IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...
 ESPECIALLY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR. HOWEVER...JOVA IS
 EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...EVEN THOUGH
 SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE
 CYCLONE NEARS THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTAL TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND
 HWRF MODELS. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WESTERLY FETCH OF
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
 OF JOVA EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE IS INLAND AT 48 HOURS...THE
 GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO
 CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
  
 INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
 LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
 36-HOUR TRACK FORECAST HAS AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75 MILES. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/2100Z 16.8N 106.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
  48H  12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
  72H  13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART