818 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS BECOME
 BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPED ALL
 THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS
 SHOWS AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JOVA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON
 THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE
 BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 075/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
 SHOWS THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE PACIFIC NORTH
 OF JOVA AND IRWIN EAST OF 130W.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER
 JOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK
 BRINGS JOVA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS AND
 OVER MEXICO BY 96 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.  THE TRACK
 LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD
 ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE
 CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  ON
 THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90
 KT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. 
 GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE
 GFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
 LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
 DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN