912 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011
 
 THE STRUCTURE OF JOVA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR.  VERY DEEP
 CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE
 NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SUBJECTIVE
 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...AND A
 LARGE AREA OF 45 KT WIND VECTORS WERE NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. 
 THE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN
 THE SHEAR PATTERN AND THE ASCAT DATA... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
 IS SET TO 55 KT.  THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABATE
 OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JOVA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN
 UPPER ANTICYCLONE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT
 INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 WILL SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
 FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY LATE SATURDAY. 
 THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION REMAINS BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS AND
 THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD
 THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW
 DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS OVER
 SOUTHERN MEXICO.  BY LATE SATURDAY...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
 OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS LIKELY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
 NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
 REMAIN RATHER NOTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER HUGE DISAGREEMENT IN
 THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAS BEEN
 SOMEWHAT REDUCED.  THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY WARRANTS A
 FORECAST CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL
 SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THAT GUIDANCE...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
 IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z 14.6N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE