614 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 171457
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
  
 AN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE
 THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E
 SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90
 KT.
  
 THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
 AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
 INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER
 JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
 AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE
 SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
 SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY
 MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST
 IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
 LOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
 PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W    90 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W    95 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W    95 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W    95 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W    90 KT
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W    80 KT
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W    65 KT
 120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W    65 KT
  
  
 $$