409 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 142031
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION
 FOUND IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER
 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WINDS...BUT HOW GOOD THESE ARE
 IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE DEEP-
 LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HR...
 TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  MOST MODELS SHOW
 THIS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
 MOTION NOT SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
 NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...
 AND GFDN RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD...
 WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES A WESTWARD MOTION ALONG 12N.  GIVEN THIS
 SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION
 THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE
 LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
 ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST
 THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO.  THE GFDL
 IS ALONE IN TAKING THE SYSTEM UP TO A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL.  IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE
 TOWARD THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...IT WILL
 LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W    50 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W    55 KT
  
  
 $$