285 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 141427
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER BOTH TAFB AND AFWA LOWERED THE T-NUMBER AT
 12Z.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT
 UPGRADED AT THIS TIME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
 10 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STEADY INCREASE IN
 STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE BUOYANCY TERM IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
 THAT A STABLE AIR MASS MAY IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS
 AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF WEST...260/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
 RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO OVER THE
 EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
 PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
 SEVERAL DAYS.  BY DAYS 4-5...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
 WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 140W.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...
 WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING OF
 THE FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.  THIS IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL/UKMET/
 NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 13.9N 126.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W    35 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W    50 KT
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W    55 KT
  
  
 $$