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 603 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 131433
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
 OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
 BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM
 ACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY
 WILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND
 THE INTENSITY.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
 WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS
 PERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL 
 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
 TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. 
 
 THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER
 RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
 THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST
 FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE
 AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
 AND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD.  
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W    55 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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