176 
 WTPA43 PHFO 241445
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 AM HST SAT SEP 24 2005
  
 THE WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA HAS REMAINED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR
 ALMOST 24 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE
 AGENCIES VARIED FROM T NUMBERS OF LESS THAN 1.0 TO 1.0. BASED ON
 THESE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT.
  
 THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS WEST...OR TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 11
 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DICTATE THE MOTION OF
 JOVA. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO
 THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 JOVA...AND ITS REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
 ALONG A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE AT ABOUT 11 KT THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JOVA
 AS A RESULT OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. THIS
 SHEARING IS BEING CAUSED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG
 THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF
 KAUAI. JOVA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW
 PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. 
 
 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS REDUCED...OR NEGATED...THE TRADE WINDS
 ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. IT IS ALSO A
 SOURCE OF LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
 THE ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY CAUSED BY
 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
 SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER SOME OF THE ISLANDS.
 FOR THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY LOCALIZED
 FLOODING WOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING
 DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 
   
 FORECASTER HOUSTON
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/1500Z 23.1N 153.8W    25 KT
  12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.2N 155.6W    25 KT
  24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.4N 158.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.6N 160.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.9N 162.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 168.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
  
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