Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 137 
 WTPA43 PHFO 240238
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005
 
 JOVA IS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
 DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES VARY FROM 1.0 TO 2.0. TO STAY
 WITHIN DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 ADVISORY IS 2.0 OR 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 
 315/8 KT.
 
 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
 FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
 NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGH
 TO THE WEST...ALL THE WHILE KEEPING JOVA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP
 LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY
 TURN TO THE WEST...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE
 FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
 A SMALL TURN TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AS INDICATED ON
 SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
 
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO SLOWLY
 WEAKEN...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND
 IS CLOSEST TO UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE SHIP MODEL HAS JOVA DISSIPATED
 IN 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A BIT PREMATURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR JOVA
 TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER CRAIG
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0300Z 23.2N 151.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     24/1200Z 23.9N 152.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     25/0000Z 25.0N 154.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 155.8W    30 KT
  48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.7N 157.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     27/0000Z 27.0N 161.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JOVA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman