137
WTPA43 PHFO 240238
TCDCP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST FRI SEP 23 2005
JOVA IS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES VARY FROM 1.0 TO 2.0. TO STAY
WITHIN DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS 2.0 OR 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
315/8 KT.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE HIGH
TO THE WEST...ALL THE WHILE KEEPING JOVA IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE WEST...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
A SMALL TURN TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AS INDICATED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR JOVA TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND
IS CLOSEST TO UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE SHIP MODEL HAS JOVA DISSIPATED
IN 12 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A BIT PREMATURE. THE FORECAST IS FOR JOVA
TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER CRAIG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 23.2N 151.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 23.9N 152.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 25.0N 154.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 155.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.7N 157.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 27/0000Z 27.0N 161.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
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