790 
 WTPA43 PHFO 231436
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 AM HST FRI SEP 23 2005
 
 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...JOVA HAS DEGENERATED CONSIDERABLY AND LOST
 ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CB CELL
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  POSITION ESTIMATES BASED ON GOES DATA
 REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BUT AMSU AND SSMI DATA AFTER 0600 UTC
 INDICATED A POSITION TOO FAR NORTH IN THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN AND THE
 BEST TRACK POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.  DVORAK
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...AFWA...SAB AND JTWC RANGE FROM 3.0
 TO 3.5 SO WILL USE AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
 
 JOVA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITHIN THE GRIP OF
 UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  CIMSS DATA INDICATED 20 TO
 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JOVA AND SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER WERE BETWEEN 25 AND 26 DEGREES C. 
 NOGAPS AND GFNI KEEP JOVA AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH 96
 AND 48 HOURS RESPECTIVELY.  GFDI DROPS JOVA TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS AND SHIPS PREDICTS EVEN FASTER DISSIPATION. 
 FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL GO WITH THE GFDI INTENSITY SOLUTION AND WILL
 PROJECT DISSIPATION BY DAY 4.
 
 THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND THERE IS NO LONGER THE EXPECTATION OF JOVA TO REMAIN
 INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR 40N.  THE
 NOGAPS...GFNI...CONU...GUNS AND GUNA FORECASTS ARE CLUSTERED
 TOGETHER AND STILL SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE
 GFDL...GFS...BAMS AND BAMM FAVOR A CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
 WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT.  THE
 CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU...GUNS AND GUNA CLUSTER THROUGH 24
 HOURS THEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE GFS TRACK.
 
  
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 22.7N 150.0W    50 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 23.7N 150.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 24.9N 152.5W    40 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N 154.3W    35 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 27.3N 156.2W    30 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 30.2N 159.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.6N 161.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
  
  
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