956
WTPA43 PHFO 220917
TCDCP3
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005
HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. IT WAS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER TONIGHT
BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY...SINCE JOVA LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEFORE THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE. FORTUNATELY..AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES
WERE AVAILABLE ON THE NRL WEB SITE AT 0326 UTC AND 0425 UTC...
RESPECTIVELY. THE 0600 UTC POSITION WAS DETERMINED USING THESE
MICROWAVE POSITIONS AND THE POSITION ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE
SATELLITE AGENCIES.
DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE
AGENCIES ALSO REFLECTED THE FACT THAT JOVA LOST ITS EYE. AS A
RESULT THE INTENSITY OF JOVA WAS DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS THE
LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES
SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS.
THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS.
THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO MOVE THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS
MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS
SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE
PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BECOMES
A PART OF A MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY
HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE
IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT AT THE HIGHER
LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA WILL LIKELY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL GALE.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THE 12
FT SEAS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED.
FORECASTER HOUSTON
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 19.0N 147.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 19.8N 148.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.1N 149.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.8N 150.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.9N 151.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 30.7N 154.3W 35 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 37.0N 154.2W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 42.5N 150.2W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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