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 956 
 WTPA43 PHFO 220917
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 11 PM HST WED SEP 21 2005
 
 HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARDS 330 DEG AT 7 KT. IT WAS
 DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER TONIGHT
 BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY...SINCE JOVA LOST ITS DISTINCT EYE LATE
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHORTLY BEFORE THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE
 IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE. FORTUNATELY..AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE PASSES
 WERE AVAILABLE ON THE NRL WEB SITE AT 0326 UTC AND 0425 UTC...
 RESPECTIVELY. THE 0600 UTC POSITION WAS DETERMINED USING THESE
 MICROWAVE POSITIONS AND THE POSITION ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE
 SATELLITE AGENCIES.
 
 DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL OF THE SATELLITE
 AGENCIES ALSO REFLECTED THE FACT THAT JOVA LOST ITS EYE. AS A
 RESULT THE INTENSITY OF JOVA WAS DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS THE
 LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS WEAKENING. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS
 JOVA CONTINUES MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSES
 SUPPLIED BY THE UW/CIMSS.
 
 THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS.
 THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO MOVE THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS
 MODELS...GUNS...GUNA AND CONU. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE TRACK WAS
 SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT TO INDICATE THAT JOVA WILL LIKELY BE
 PICKED UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BECOMES
 A PART OF A MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE VERY
 HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM. 
 
 THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE DECREASED TO BETTER AGREE WITH
 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS. THESE ARE ALSO MORE
 IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT AT THE HIGHER
 LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5...JOVA WILL LIKELY GAIN NEW LIFE AS AN
 EXTRATROPICAL GALE.
 
 THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THE 12
 FT SEAS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED.
  
 FORECASTER HOUSTON
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/0900Z 19.0N 147.7W    90 KT
  12HR VT     22/1800Z 19.8N 148.4W    80 KT
  24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.1N 149.4W    70 KT
  36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.8N 150.6W    55 KT
  48HR VT     24/0600Z 24.9N 151.9W    45 KT
  72HR VT     25/0600Z 30.7N 154.3W    35 KT
  96HR VT     26/0600Z 37.0N 154.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     27/0600Z 42.5N 150.2W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
 
 
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