327
WTPA43 PHFO 200246
TCDCP3
HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005
HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH AT 100 KNOTS
OR 115 MPH AND WAS ESTIMATED TO BE A T5.5 AT 2 PM HST. SINCE THEN
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH ITS COLD EYE WALL BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN...ITS STEADY NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS TAKEN INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER CROSSING THE 80DEGF ISOTHERM AND INTO PARTIALLY SHEARING
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT UPPER LEVELS. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND...AN ABRUPT WEAKENING DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED BY
THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY OUTLINED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS BASED GUNS GUNA AND CONU AND HAVE
SPEEDED UP OUR LATER PERIOD MOTIONS IN DEFERENCE TO THEM.
THIS WOULD PLACE JOVA 300 TO 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AT ITS CLOSEST POINT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
FORECASTER MATSUDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.2N 143.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 144.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.2N 145.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.7N 145.9W 85 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 18.7N 146.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W 70 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 23.4N 149.4W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 152.0W 60 KT
$$
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