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 327 
 WTPA43 PHFO 200246
 TCDCP3
 
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
 5 PM HST MON SEP 19 2005
  
 HURRICANE JOVA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH AT 100 KNOTS
 OR 115 MPH AND WAS ESTIMATED TO BE A T5.5 AT 2 PM HST. SINCE THEN 
 CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH ITS COLD EYE WALL BEGINNING TO BREAK 
 DOWN...ITS STEADY NORTHWESTWARD PATH IS TAKEN INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER
 WATER CROSSING THE 80DEGF ISOTHERM AND INTO PARTIALLY SHEARING 
 SOUTHWESTERLIES AT UPPER LEVELS. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW 
 WEAKENING TREND...AN ABRUPT WEAKENING DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED BY 
 THE MAJORITY OF INTENSITY MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD 
 MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY OUTLINED BY NEARLY ALL MODELS...
 PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS BASED GUNS GUNA AND CONU AND HAVE
 SPEEDED UP OUR LATER PERIOD MOTIONS IN DEFERENCE TO THEM.
 THIS WOULD PLACE JOVA 300 TO 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 BIG ISLAND AT ITS CLOSEST POINT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  
  
 FORECASTER MATSUDA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 16.2N 143.5W   100 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.6N 144.3W    95 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 145.1W    90 KT
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.7N 145.9W    85 KT
  48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.7N 146.6W    80 KT
  72HR VT     23/0000Z 20.6N 147.9W    70 KT
  96HR VT     24/0000Z 23.4N 149.4W    65 KT
 120HR VT     25/0000Z 26.5N 152.0W    60 KT
  
  
 $$
 
 
 
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