453 
 WTNT45 KNHC 050244
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
  
 JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A STAIR STEPPED FASHION DURING THE LAST
 SEVERAL HOURS BUT A 12 HR AVERAGE YIELDS 290/09.  THIS GENERAL
 MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
 CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER
 THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE...WHICH
 SHOULD ALLOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
 SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF
 MODELS FORECASTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET...
 GFS...MODELS KEEP JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE TRACK
 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BUT STILL LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
 SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 JOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
 ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST WHICH IS
 INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.  WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
 FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SSTS FALL ALONG THE FORECAST
 TRACK... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IF
 JOSEPHINE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ENVIRONMENT
 COULD BECOME MORE  FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...SOME OF
 THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER JOSEPHINE
 AND THE SSTS RISE ALONG THE FORECAST.  STILL...NONE OF THE
 AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL
 AND HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JOSEPHINE WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO
 REACH THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS A LITTLE
 RESTRENGTHENING AT DAYS 3-5.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/0300Z 15.1N  33.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.4N  34.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  36.3W    35 KT
  36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N  37.9W    35 KT
  48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  39.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  48.0W    40 KT
 120HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  51.0W    45 KT
  
 $$
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