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 WTNT45 KNHC 040836
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
 500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
 CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT
 AND T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CONVECTION...THEN JOSEPHINE WILL
 BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
 SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. JOSEPHINE IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE
 SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48-72
 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE
 ...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A POLEWARD JOG AT DAYS 3 AND
 4...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A LITTLE
 MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE
 RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 ALTHOUGH JOSEPHINE IS EXPERIENCING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT...THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
 MODERATE DIFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
 LOW THAT IS SITUATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JOSEPHINE AND MAJOR
 HURRICANE IKE. THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
 WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH JOSEPHINE AND IKE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
 AFTER WHICH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND
 LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS
 SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
 INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER
 THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BY HOLDING THE
 INTENSITY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF
 JOSEPHINE REMAINS NEAR OR SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY DAYS 4 AND
 5...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
 AND WEAK SHEAR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THIS
 SCENARIO WILL BE EVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0900Z 14.2N  31.3W    50 KT
  12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N  32.9W    50 KT
  24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N  35.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N  37.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  39.1W    50 KT
  72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N  42.8W    50 KT
  96HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  47.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  51.5W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART