054 
 WTNT45 KNHC 040241
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008
 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
  
 THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE PATTERN WITH NO BANDING FEATURES AND ONLY A STRETCHED BURST
 OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
 HAVE COME DOWN FROM SAB/TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
 TO 45 KT IN LINE WITH THOSE ESTIMATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
 OF JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE STORM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
 THE MAIN FACTOR TO MODULATE THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 PERSIST.  THUS A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST
 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  MOST OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT
 THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN AND I'D PREFER TO SHOW LITTLE
 CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/10. A WEST OR
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
 RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IF JOSEPHINE BECAME A STRONGER
 SYSTEM...IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
 DEEPER STEERING CURRENT LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER...
 I'M GOING TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS REASONING OF THE SYSTEM
 REMAINING WEAKER AND BEING STEERED BY THE MORE SHALLOW CURRENTS
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN
 SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  32.5W    45 KT
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N  34.9W    40 KT
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.0N  37.2W    40 KT
  48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N  39.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  44.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N  48.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  53.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE