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 559 
 WTNT41 KNHC 221534
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 NOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
 INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
 HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 25 KT IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION AND THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE
 CONVECTION IS STILL BROAD.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG AND
 THE WATER IS WARM...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY LONG
 OVER THE WATER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. 
 ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THIS
 SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION IN
 FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIR FORCE
 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE
 STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST
 UNTIL LANDFALL. 
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      22/1600Z 19.5N  95.0W    25 KT
  12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N  96.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.9N  97.6W    25 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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