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 231 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 100240
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  18
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018
 
 John continues to slowly weaken as the storm moves over 22 degrees C
 waters well west of the Baja California Peninsula. Although cloud
 tops have become progressively warmer over the past 12 hours,
 satellite imagery indicates that the storm still has a well-defined
 structure, with tight banding around the system center and an
 eye-like feature. Based off the decrease in convection, the initial
 intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This is in agreement with an
 average of Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given the good
 structure of the storm this evening, John will likely maintain
 tropical storm intensity through most of Friday. After that time,
 progressively cooler SSTs and stable air should cause convection
 to dissipate sufficiently enough for John to be considered a remnant
 low. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin
 down until it dissipates early next week.
 
 After a leftward jog in the track earlier today, the tropical storm
 has resumed a motion of 300/12 kt. This track is expected to
 continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in
 forward speed. Thereafter, the left-biased GFS, which had been
 calling for an interaction between the remnants of John and Tropical
 Storm Kristy to the southwest, has now backed off that solution in
 the 18Z run. This has resulted in a rightward shift in many of the
 consensus models. With this shift in guidance, the forecast track
 has also been adjusted slightly to the right, very close to the
 latest TVCN solution, which has the remnant low of John drifting
 northwest then north later this weekend into early next week.
 
 Swells associated with John continue to affect portions of
 the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to
 reach portions of the southern California coast. These swells could
 cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
 consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 25.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
 
 
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