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 390 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 092036
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018
 
 John has resumed its gradual weakening.  Cloud tops near the center
 of the tropical storm have warmed, and several recent microwave
 overpasses indicate that deep convection is still primarily limited
 to the northern and western semicircles. The intensity has been
 lowered to 55 kt based on a the latest Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB
 and SAB, and it is possible this is generous. No change has been
 made to the intensity forecast, and continued steady weakening
 should continue for the next day or two. The most recent dynamical
 guidance indicates that John is likely to become a remnant low
 around 36 h, so the forecast conservatively shows the system
 maintaining tropical cyclone status through that time. Once it
 becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until
 dissipating early next week.
 
 The tropical storm has made a left-of-track jog over the past few
 hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 290/13 kt.  Due to
 this shift, the track forecast has been adjusted west and south
 through the entire forecast period. That said, there has been no
 other significant change to the forecast reasoning or track
 guidance. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward
 around a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. for the
 next day or two.  After becoming post-tropical, the remnant
 circulation of John is forecast to begin drifting slowly within an
 area of weak low-level steering flow. The new NHC forecast is very
 close to the multi-model consensus TVCN throughout the forecast
 period.
 
 Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
 the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
 spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
 by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
 and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
 weather office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/2100Z 24.8N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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