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 216 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 091432
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  16
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018
 
 John's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A
 combination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing
 convection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's
 circulation.  A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
 classifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60
 kt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs
 for the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.
 The intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening
 rate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the
 next 48 h.
 
 The initial motion continues near 305/14 kt.  There is no change to
 the reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is
 merely an update of the previous advisory.  All of the guidance
 remains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually
 turn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge
 centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the
 end of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down
 to a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.
 
 Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
 the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
 spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
 by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
 and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
 weather office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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