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 484 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 090232
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 After making a bit of a comeback earlier today, the final weakening
 phase of John appears to have begun.  The eye is no longer apparent
 on visible or infrared imagery and the inner core convection is
 becoming more fragmented.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt
 based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
 John is beginning to cross a significant gradient of SST into cooler
 waters and a drier, more stable air mass should cause steady
 weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model
 consensus.  John is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical
 remnant low by Saturday, if not sooner.
 
 The initial motion, 325/14 kt, is about the same as before.  The
 track forecast is fairly straightforward.  The tropical cyclone
 should continue to move northwestward on the southwestern periphery
 of a mid-level ridge for the next day or two.  A gradual turn
 toward the left should take place thereafter as the increasingly
 shallow system comes more under the influence of the low-level
 flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, John's remnants are
 likely to slowly meander in a region of weak steering currents.
 The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast
 is slightly north of the previous one.
 
 Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
 outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
 to portions of Baja California Sur through Thursday morning.
 
 John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
 portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
 These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
 of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
 California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause
 life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
 products from your local weather office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 23.1N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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