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 362 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 082032
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 John has shown some improved organization since the last advisory
 as the system has formed a 20 n mi wide cloud-filled eye.  Satellite
 intensity estimates remain in the 65-77 kt range, so the initial
 intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.  Other than
 this temporary break in the weakening, there is little change to the
 intensity forecast, as the forecast track takes John over
 progressively colder sea surface temperatures and into a more stable
 air mass. The new intensity forecast is in the center of the
 intensity guidance, with John expected to weaken to a tropical storm
 in 24 h or less and to a remnant low between 48-72 h.
 
 The initial motion is 325/13, a bit faster than earlier.  A
 combination of an upper-level low near 19N 124W and a mid- to
 upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer John
 northwestward for the next 36 h or so.  After that, the cyclone or
 its remnants is forecast to turn west-northwestward in the low-level
 trade wind flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, a slow motion
 is expected as the remnants of John move into an area of light
 steering currents.  The guidance envelope has shifted a little to
 the north from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is
 north of and faster than the previous forecast.
 
 Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
 outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
 to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
 Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
 Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.
 
 John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
 portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
 These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
 of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
 California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause
 life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
 products from your local weather office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/2100Z 22.0N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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