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 012 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 081436
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12
 hours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional
 satellite data.  The CDO has also become considerably less
 symmetric than noted yesterday.  Satellite intensity estimates
 range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been
 lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.  John will be moving over
 cooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable
 atmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight.
 By Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more
 rapid rate of filling is expected by that time.  John is predicted
 to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around
 21C.
 
 The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should
 continue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep
 cyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it
 is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade
 wind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent
 agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC
 track forecast.
 
 Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
 outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
 to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
 Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
 Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.
 
 John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
 portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
 These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
 of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
 California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause
 life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
 products from your local weather office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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