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 765 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080858
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number  11
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018
 
 As mentioned in the previous discussion, the eye of John passed
 about 9 nmi northeast of Socorro Island around 0030 UTC, with the
 island possibly being within or just outside the eyewall. Additional
 data from an automated station on the island indicate that the
 highest sustained wind reported in 15-minute intervals was 48 kt at
 0230 UTC, with another 70-kt gust reported at 0200 UTC. The lowest
 pressure measured was 970 mb at 0015 UTC, which is probably a 4-5 mb
 too low. Since that time, John's eye has occasionally become
 cloud-filled, but deep convection has recently developed in the
 eyewall. The initial intensity is only decreased slightly to 85 kt
 based on a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 87 kt and due to the recent
 uptick in eyewall convection.
 
 Although John should remain over warm waters for another 12 hours
 or so, the general trend calls for steady weakening due to the
 ingestion of more stable air to the north, which is expected to
 decrease the instability and inner-core convection. The official
 intensity forecast is lower than the previous intensity forecast,
 and is similar to a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.
 
 The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.
 John is expected to return to a northwestward motion at a slightly
 faster forward speed later this morning, and then continue that
 motion for the next 72 hours. After that time, a turn toward the
 west-northwestward is forecast due to the weakening and shallow
 cyclone being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new
 official forecast remains in close agreement with the previous
 advisory, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
 outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
 to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.
 Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California
 Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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