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 784 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 080229
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 The eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a
 few hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds
 narrowly missed the island.  An automated station at Socorro
 recorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC.  Although John's inner
 core convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity
 numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for
 this advisory.  Although John should remain over warm waters for
 the next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it
 is now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no
 further strengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast
 is somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and
 near the consensus thereafter.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt.  The
 hurricane should continue to move northwestward along the
 southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of
 days.  Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left
 and eventually move westward following the low-level flow.  The new
 official forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and
 much of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement.
 
 Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast
 track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field
 of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to
 the west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture
 around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally
 heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next
 couple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the
 Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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