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 784 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 071447
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 Visible and infrared satellite images have continued to show the
 ragged eye of John this morning, but the surrounding convective
 cloud tops have become more symmetric and cooled since the previous
 advisory.  The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
 TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90 kt, which support increasing the initial
 wind speed to that value.  John has about another 24 hours over
 warm water in which to intensify, and the NHC intensity forecast
 calls for John to attain major hurricane strength later today or
 tonight.  After that time, decreasing SSTs and a more stable
 environment should lead to steady or rapid weakening, and John is
 expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first
 12 to 24 hours, and then is between the aforementioned models and
 the intensity consensus thereafter.
 
 John is moving northwestward or 320/8 kt.  The track guidance is in
 good agreement on taking the hurricane northwestward around the
 western portion of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
 Once John weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system it should
 turn westward in the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is
 near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.
 
 The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the
 forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer
 wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds
 to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests
 in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should
 monitor the progress of this hurricane.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/1500Z 17.9N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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