969 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070831
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that John has resumed its intensification
 trend, with a ragged eye showing up in the night-visible and other
 channels.  Dvorak estimates are between 70-90 kt, so 80 kt is used
 as the initial wind speed.  John has another day or so to intensify
 in a low-shear, warm-water environment before it rapidly crosses
 into cooler waters.  The hurricane has been intensifying at a rate
 of about 30 kt/24 hours, so this trend was heavily weighted in the
 latest forecast given the continuation of the conducive environment.
 All of the guidance show a pretty steep drop in intensity as the
 hurricane quickly enters cool waters, with rapid weakening likely.
 The latest forecast is close to the previous one, but shows John
 becoming post-tropical by day 4 when it will be over 21C waters.
 
 John continues to move northwestward, now at about 8 kt.  The
 hurricane should move in that general direction but faster over the
 next 3 days under the influence of a strengthening subtropical
 ridge.  As John weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward,
 steered more by the low-level ridge.  Guidance remains tightly
 clustered and no significant change was made to the previous
 forecast track.
 
 The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
 the Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the
 forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer
 wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds
 to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests
 in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should
 monitor the progress of this hurricane.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0900Z 17.3N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake