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 038 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 062048
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane John Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018
 
 John has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.
 Visible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in
 banding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding
 eye.  As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,
 which is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS
 objective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt.  John becomes
 the fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
 season.
 
 John is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for
 strengthening during the next day or so.  Although some of the
 intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the
 various rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood
 of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast
 once again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major
 hurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast
 is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the
 latest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models.  After 48 h, John will be
 moving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive
 thermodynamic environment.  This should result in rapid weakening,
 and John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.
 
 John is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The hurricane is
 forecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a
 mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days.  Once
 the system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the
 forecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.
 The overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with
 the GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance
 envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.
 The new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between
 the ECMWF and the various consensus aids.
 
 Due to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted
 increase in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of
 the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
 system.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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