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 360 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 052039
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018
 
 The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
 southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the
 associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the
 system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the
 2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season.  The initial intensity is
 set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity
 estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
 
 The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt.  The
 track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due
 to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its
 east-southeast.  Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance
 is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion
 around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern
 Mexico during the next several days.  Since the depression is larger
 than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move
 around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's
 circulation and weaken and dissipate.  The NHC track forecast is
 near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF
 solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.
 
 The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,
 and a moist atmosphere.  These factors suggest that the depression
 will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite
 aggressive in intensifying the system.  The NHC forecast is slightly
 more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still
 quite broad and lacks an inner core.  Regardless, the NHC forecast
 brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a
 peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the
 HFIP corrected consensus model.  Cool waters and less favorable
 thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening
 late in the forecast period.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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