630
WTPZ45 KNHC 040839
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012
THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY
IN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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