630 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 040839
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012
  
 THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL
 WIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
 OVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
 LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE
 SAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY
 IN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A
 WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE