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 486 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 030240
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
  
 MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
 DEPRESSION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS/CIMSS UW SHEAR ANALYSES.
 THE CLOUD PATTERN GIVES EVIDENCE OF THIS SHEAR...WITH THE CENTER
 LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
 BAND COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.
 DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AT 0000 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION HAS
 ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE
 INTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER
 THAT TIME.  SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  STEADY
 WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES
 INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN
 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM
 GUIDANCE.
  
 THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE RELIABLE 300/15. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
 DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-
 CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
 DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME AN
 INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY HEADING AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME
 SHALLOWER IN NATURE AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT LEFT OF A BLEND OF THE
 TRACKS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH APPEARED TO
 HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0300Z 19.0N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 21.4N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 24.8N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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