945 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 022056
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
 OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH
 OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. IN
 ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
 THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THIS INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE DEPRESSION IS
 CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTELY SHEAR.
 THESE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE
 FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ABOUT
 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND
 THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 CLOSEST TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 290/15. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
 GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
 MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
 SOLUTIONS.
  
 THE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND
 FIELD...AND THOSE DATA WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST
 34-KT WIND RADII. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  03/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  03/1800Z 20.7N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  04/0600Z 21.9N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  04/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  05/1800Z 24.6N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  06/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI