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 305 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 040230
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
  
 THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER
 STILL EXISTS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK
 SPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI
 NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
 WHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION. 
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE.
 
 BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE
 AFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA.  A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
 WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER
 MEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER
 THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24
 HOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
 MOUNTAIN RANGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF
 MID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
 THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
 AMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
  
 
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