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 326 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 032030
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
  
 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL BAJA
 CALIFORNIA... IS DISRUPTING THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE.
 EVIDENCE OF THIS IS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A
 MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER SEEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF
 THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH VISIBLE
 IMAGES... THE EXACT CENTER OF JOHN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  SURFACE
 WINDS AT SANTA ROSALIA HAVE SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
 IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.. SO THE CENTER IS LIKELY WEST OF THAT
 LOCATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW
 HOURS... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THESE
 WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA MOSTLY IN ONSHORE FLOW.
 FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE
 TOMORROW.
  
 BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT JOHN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.. NOW 325/6.  THIS
 GENERAL TRACK SEEMS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER STAYS
 SOMEWHAT COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN GENERAL THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE
 GFDL/GFS KEEP SHIFTING WILDLY FROM A MORE WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
 TRACK WHILE THE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE PROBABLY
 WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF JOHN TOMORROW... AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL
 CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
 AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO
 THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/2100Z 27.6N 112.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.4N 113.2W    30 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.4N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  36HR VT     05/0600Z 30.2N 114.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
  
 
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