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 059 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 031434
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
 
 JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER
 WESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM WITH ALMOST ALL OF
 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MEXICAN NAVY
 STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 996.1 MB
 AND 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
 DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE
 TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE
 MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...
 IF NOT SOONER.
  
 JOHN IS MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 325/8. THE TRACK FORECAST
 ISN'T EASY THIS MORNING WITH THE SAME PROBLEMS FOR THE LAST COUPLE
 OF DAYS PERSISTING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHEN THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOHN WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
 CENTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN
 INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS SHOW A
 MORE RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD TURN IN A DAY OR SO
 FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A GOOD TOOL TO SMOOTH THROUGH THESE
 DIFFERENCES AND HAS VERIFIED WELL. THEREFORE.. THE OFFICIAL IS
 NUDGED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL
 CONSENSUS. 
 
 REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
 MOISTURE FROM JOHN.   
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.1N 112.5W    40 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  48HR VT     05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
  
 
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