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 682 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 030840
 PWSEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24             
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 0900 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 P ABREOJOS     34  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  
 LORETO         34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
  
 P PENASCO      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 271N 1127W 34 25   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
  12 271N 1127W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  12 271N 1127W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 281N 1137W 34  2  12(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
  24 281N 1137W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  24 281N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  36 292N 1147W 34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  36 292N 1147W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  36 292N 1147W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  48 299N 1158W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  48 299N 1158W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  48 299N 1158W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
  72 300N 1180W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  72 300N 1180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  72 300N 1180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     35     30      25      20      20       0       0
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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