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 233 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 030839
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006
  
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
 PASS NEAR 0200 UTC AND A REPORT OF 37 KT FROM SHIP D5XH JUST
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
 
 JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/7.  THE TRACK
 FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND LARGE
 DISCREPANCIES IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK
 MODELS.  THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH
 FORECAST JOHN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TO
 THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOW JOHN TURNING TOWARD
 THE WEST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS DIFFERS BY
 ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE UKMET AND EUROPEAN
 MODELS APPEAR TO PROVIDE THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTIONS BY SHOWING
 THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS IT
 BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER
 LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY ASSUMING
 JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITHIN A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
 UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN A DAY OR SO. 
 THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN
 TOWARD THE WEST IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. REGARDLESS OF
 THE EXACT TRACK...A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
 PULL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN NORTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE
 RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
  
 WITH JOHN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER 24-36
 HOURS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE COULD
 DISSIPATE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. SHOULD JOHN RE-EMERGE BACK OVER
 THE EASTERN PACIFIC...REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO COLD
 WATERS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      03/0900Z 26.3N 112.1W    45 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     03/1800Z 27.1N 112.7W    35 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.1N 113.7W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/1800Z 29.2N 114.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  48HR VT     05/0600Z 29.9N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     06/0600Z 30.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
  
 
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