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 339 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 030231
 PWSEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23             
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  
 LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
  
 P ABREOJOS     34  9  15(24)   2(26)   X(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 P ABREOJOS     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 LORETO         34 89   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 LORETO         50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 P PENASCO      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 264N 1125W 34 60   7(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
  12 264N 1125W 50  8   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
  12 264N 1125W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  24 274N 1136W 34  6  19(25)   4(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
  24 274N 1136W 50  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  24 274N 1136W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  36 283N 1146W 34  1   7( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  36 283N 1146W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  36 283N 1146W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  48 290N 1155W 34  1   1( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)
  48 290N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  48 290N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
  72 295N 1170W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
  72 295N 1170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  72 295N 1170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
  96 295N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
  96 295N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
  96 295N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     45     35      30      25      20      20       0
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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