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 067 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE
 NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON
 SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER
 LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
 FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA
 CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS
 SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE
 EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
 TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO
 ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW
 315/7.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK
 RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL
 GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN...
 IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE
 GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE
 NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS
 BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH
 OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W    60 KT...INLAND
  12HR VT     03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W    50 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 
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