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 598 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 021439
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
 AFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS
 MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE EYE FEATURE ON
 SATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND
 AND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70
 KT.  HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT
 ESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE
 HURRICANE'S CORE.  JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE
 AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA.  REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
 AFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE
 COLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER... THE
 SMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. 
 IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE
 LEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL
 IS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN
 EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE
 SEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE
 NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. 
 INSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
  
 IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
 INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W    70 KT...NEAR COAST
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W    55 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W    40 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W    30 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
 
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