Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 695 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 020859
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
  
 MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN
 REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
 CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE EYE HAS ERODED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
 RADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE INTACT ALONG
 THE COAST EAST OF LA PAZ.  DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
 AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 RATHER UNCERTAIN.  SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT FAR INLAND THE INTENSITY
 WILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8. JOHN IS BEING STEERED
 NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
 RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD. THE GFDL AND GFS MADE
 A RATHER LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND NOW INDICATE THAT JOHN COULD
 EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 THE UKMET ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD BUT KEEPS JOHN ALONG THE EAST COAST
 OF THE PENINSULA. DESPITE THE LARGE CHANGES IN THE MODELS...THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS JUST RIGHT OR
 EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE
 IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 12-18
 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
 PENINSULA...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS JOHN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12-18
 HOURS...SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE
 COAST OR EVEN BRIEFLY OVER THE BAY OF LA PAZ TODAY. THEREAFTER...
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS JOHN A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JOHN.
 IF THE HURRICANE REMAINS EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONG THE
 EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
 INDICATED.  HOWEVER...SINCE JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT
 COULD ALSO WEAKEN FASTER OR EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
 TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
  
 IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD
 INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 24.2N 110.2W    85 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N 110.8W    75 KT...NEAR COAST
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 26.1N 111.8W    55 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N 112.8W    35 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.7N 116.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
  
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JOHN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman