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 446 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 020256
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE
 INDICATE THAT THE 10-12 N MI WIDE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR 02Z
 OVER CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  INFRARED IMAGERY
 SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION...BUT NOT YET
 ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.  ONE
 INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS THAT JOHN HAS LOST
 ITS CIRCULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO THE
 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IF SHEAR IS OCCURRING.  SINCE NO
 AVAILABLE DATA SHOWS SHEAR...THE REASON FOR THIS APPEARANCE IS
 UNKNOWN.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8.  JOHN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF
 A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR
 IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND WESTERLY FLOW
 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD TO
 THE NORTH OF JOHN...AND THUS ARE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE
 GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF
 CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
 NOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT JUMPS TO THE
 RIGHT...AND ONLY THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL TAKE JOHN
 WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
 SHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT
 NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR.  SHOULD THE
 CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
  
 THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JOHN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA
 CALIFORNIA FOR LAND INTERACTION TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY.  WITH AN
 INCREASING AMOUNT OF INFLOW COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND...THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK. 
 SHOULD THE CYCLONE STAY OVER OR CLOSE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
 IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SLOWER DURING THE POST-36 HR PERIOD THAN
 SHOWN HERE.
  
 IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER JOHN WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
 UNITED STATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE
 CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THAT REGION EVEN IF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER DOES NOT.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 23.4N 109.6W    95 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W    85 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W    75 KT
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W    55 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W    35 KT...INLAND
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
  96HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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