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 353 
 FOPZ11 KNHC 012033
 PWSEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                  
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006               
 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8
 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95   
 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 LONG BEACH/LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
  
 ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
  
 P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 P ABREOJOS     50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
 CABO SAN LUCAS 34 75   4(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 50 29   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 CABO SAN LUCAS 64 18   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
  
 SAN JOSE CABO  34 93   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 SAN JOSE CABO  50 75   5(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 SAN JOSE CABO  64 50   3(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
  
 LA PAZ         34 46  44(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   1(92)   X(92)
 LA PAZ         50 15  45(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 LA PAZ         64  7  27(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
  
 LORETO         34  1  22(23)  11(34)   3(37)   1(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 LORETO         50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 LORETO         64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
 P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  
 HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 BAHIA KINO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
  
 GUAYMAS        34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
  
 HUATABAMPO     34  1   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  
 LOS MOCHIS     34  2  15(17)   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
  
 CULICAN        34 20  17(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 CULICAN        50  3   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 CULICAN        64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 236N 1099W 34 86   8(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
  12 236N 1099W 50 56  19(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
  12 236N 1099W 64 35  15(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
  
  24 247N 1112W 34  5  67(72)   5(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
  24 247N 1112W 50  1  35(36)   3(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
  24 247N 1112W 64  X  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
  
  36 256N 1123W 34  1  22(23)  17(40)   3(43)   2(45)   X(45)   1(46)
  36 256N 1123W 50  X   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
  36 256N 1123W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  
  48 265N 1135W 34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   7(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
  48 265N 1135W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
  48 265N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  
  
  72 283N 1160W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   X(14)
  72 283N 1160W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
  72 283N 1160W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  96 290N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
  96 290N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
  96 290N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
 120 290N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 120 290N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 120 290N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     75     55      35      35      35      25      20
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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