195 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 012035
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE
 WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING
 FEATURES.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION
 EARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT
 AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED
 ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS
 RADAR.  THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE
 TEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN
 ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY
 BEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.  
 
 THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW
 ESTIMATED TO BE 335/7.  GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE
 NORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO.  THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING
 THAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION.  THE MINORITY
 SOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA
 CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO
 BE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.  THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
 FLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE
 GFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT. 
  
 THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA
 CALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
 INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN
 THAN USUAL.  THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE
 INLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN
 THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND
 WITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS.  AN ALTERNATIVE
 SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A
 FEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W    95 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W    75 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W    35 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA