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 298 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 010910
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN WHICH HAD DEGRADED EARLIER IN THE
 EVENING...HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN. AN EYE IS NOW
 DISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON THE
 LOS CABOS RADAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER
 EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING ON THE
 RADAR IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT FROM
 AFWA... 102 KT FROM SAB...TO 115 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND IS SET
 AT 100 KT.  AN UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
 AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
 INTENSITY OF JOHN LATER THIS MORNING.
  
 JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OR WEST OF TRACK DURING THE PAST
 6 HOURS.  A LONGER TERM 12-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/11 KT
 AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY. DESPITE THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD
 TRENDS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
 NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD 
 IN THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY 
 IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW JOHN MOVING
 NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AFTER 48
 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT
 FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD IS 
 ADJUSTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF 
 THE GLOBAL MODELS. 
  
 THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO JOHN REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
 PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
 SUIT.  THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF
 THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL
 LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
 SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0900Z 21.7N 108.8W   100 KT
  12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W   105 KT
  24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W   100 KT
  36HR VT     02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W    90 KT
  48HR VT     03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W    75 KT
  72HR VT     04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W    45 KT
 120HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
  
 
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