Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 035 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 010253
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
  
 ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE EYE HAS
 BECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING.  LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR ANIMATION
 INDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN
 PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90
 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
 FROM 90 TO 102 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A CIMSS WIND SHEAR
 ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT JOHN HAS OUT RUN THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE
 AND NOW HAS MOVED WITHIN 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
 
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12
 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...JOHN
 SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
 MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/11.  JOHN REMAINS WITHIN THE
 SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA
 PENINSULA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
 CLUSTER INTO TWO GROUPS.  THE GFDL...NAVY GFDN...AND GFS INDICATE A
 NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN A
 DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE ECMWF...GFS
 ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST
 THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
 UNITED STATES...ALLOWING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH
 OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
 TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS HEDGED CLOSELY TO A
 CONSENSUS OF THE SECOND DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTER...WHICH INDICATES A
 WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. 
 
 BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH
 COASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 21.4N 107.8W    90 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W    95 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W    90 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W    90 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W    85 KT
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JOHN

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman