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 426 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 312041
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
 200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
 REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON
 INDICATE THAT JOHN IS WEAKER THAN EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A
 DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH A
 20 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE ACTUAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ACTUALLY A
 LITTLE LOWER.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT...IN REASONABLE
 AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT FROM A GPS DROPSONDE IN
 THE EASTERN EYEWALL.  ASIDE FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OBSERVED
 YESTERDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY JOHN HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH. PERHAPS
 IT WAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE
 MOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH JOHN HAS
 WEAKENED...IT STILL HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
 PATTERN AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING BEFORE
 THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ONCE JOHN STARTS
 MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TRAVERSING
 SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEADILY WEAKEN. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ESTIMATE.   JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME POSSIBLE INTERACTION
 WITH THE SMALLER HURRICANE...KRISTY...LOCATED SOME 600 MILES TO ITS
 WEST.  NOW THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT...
 THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK THAT
 WOULD TAKE JOHN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND THEN
 TAKES JOHN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.
 
 THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ALONG
 BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
 ADJUSTED FROM THE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
 AIRCRAFT. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      31/2100Z 20.7N 107.0W    90 KT
  12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W    95 KT
  24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W    95 KT
  36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W    90 KT
  48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W    85 KT
  72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
  
 
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